Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. They authors two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
